Afghanistan’s turbulent year and uncertain future

Kabul: Few countries have endured as turbulent years as Afghanistan in 2021, and with the harsh winters coming, the country’s predicament is not over yet.
The Taliban’s astonishing return to power was caught on the wrong foot by everyone-especially the hardline Islamists themselves-and the Afghans to understand what happened and what the future holds. I stumbled upon.
The biggest challenge for the Taliban is the ability to transform rebels into political and administrative organizations that can manage complex and diverse countries like Afghanistan.
There are two fears for Western countries such as the United States and its NATO partners. The situation will be significantly worsened, with tens of thousands of Afghans fleeing and evacuating abroad, and terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda evacuating again. Find a safe haven.
And for ordinary Afghans, food, shelter and employment are priorities, especially women, who are under the brunt of the Taliban’s oppressive social policies.
“The outcome of the acquisition was disastrous and immediate,” Kate Clark wrote in a special report by the Afghanistan Analyst Network (AAN).
The Taliban argued that “there were no plans for how they would operate the Afghan state without assistance, a completely predictable result of their decision to pursue a military victory.”
“On the contrary, they effectively taxed the inhabitants under their control, but could leave public services entirely to governments, NGOs, and ultimately donors,” Clark added.
“Now in power … (they) find that government revenues have dropped significantly and they have the entire population to take care of.”
One of the biggest problems facing the Taliban is the effective collapse of the bureaucracy.
On the last chaotic day of the US withdrawal, more than 120,000 Afghans were evacuated-most of them working with foreign forces to control the government and economy that depended on aid. is.
Many civil servants have not been paid for months before the Taliban takeover and have little incentive to return to work without knowing when they will be paid.
“I go to the office in the morning, but I have nothing to do,” said Hazlara, a mid-level technocrat at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“I used to work on a trade deal with my neighbor. Now I don’t have any instructions on how to proceed. Nobody knows anything.”
Some of the Taliban’s leadership are struggling to present a new regime that is different from the hardline rules that characterize the first mission of power from 1996 to 2001, at least on the surface. There was a change.
For example, there was no edict that a woman would have to wear a burqa that covers everything again, or be accompanied by a male relative when leaving the house.
But apart from basic services such as healthcare, women are virtually banned from government work and high school girls are banned from education-the Taliban will justify their decision according to the definition of Islamic principles. will do.
“It’s for their own security,” says the Taliban-blinding the fact that the greatest threat to the security of women and girls has come from Islamists themselves for years.
With the Taliban taking power, security has undoubtedly improved, but brave attacks by Islamic State groups are on the rise-especially targeting the Shiite minority of the country.
But when a major humanitarian crisis is unfolding across the country, it is the wobbling economy that will determine the future of Afghanistan.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), for humanitarians, nearly 23 million people, or 55% of the population, face “crisis or emergency” levels of food insecurity this winter. It’s a battle.
Both the Taliban and foreign powers will need to make a delicate balance in the coming months.
Donors are concerned about supporting the Paria administration, but the Taliban believe that allowing women to work, for example, should not undermine their victory.
At the local level, some aid organizations can bypass the Taliban’s public affairs and distribute the necessary supplies directly to those in need.
Elsewhere, the Taliban commanders claim that they have the sole right to distribute aid to consolidate their authority and reward their loyalties.
However, at the national level, the Taliban are not considered to be directed by foreign powers or organizations, and leadership argues that the Taliban must manage funding and aid.
“Even if all support is directed to the poorest and most deprived people without discrimination, the very strict orders, it is still easy for the Taliban to focus their resources on strengthening national control. Will be, “Clark wrote to the AAN.
The road ahead looks unclear.
“The economic benefits of peace will remain negligible nationwide compared to the absolute loss of foreign income and the harm caused by the isolation that Afghanistan is currently facing,” Clark said. Said.

Afghanistan’s turbulent year and uncertain future

Source link Afghanistan’s turbulent year and uncertain future

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